What if the market closed for five years?
Warren Buffett recommends picking companies as if the market would be closed for the next several years. The Oracle of Omaha advises picking good companies that can do well over the long term and ignore the daily noise of the stock market. Witness Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), which is still growing steadily, and General Dynamics (NYSE: GD). Abercrombie & Fitch has grown at a rate of 24.4% per year for the past 10 years, despite changing fashion tastes. General Dynamics has grown 17.7% per year. It was difficult, but I found out it was possible to follow Buffett's lead during that trip, even if it was only for two weeks.
On the other hand, I let others follow the lead of the breathless talking heads. They want you to jump in and out of your investments based on the latest news. For instance, according to the Motley Fool CAPS tracking of Jim Cramer, he was up on Akamai Technologies (Nasdaq: AKAM) more than a year ago. After it increased 27%, he changed his mind to disliking it in early August. After it had risen another 18%, he liked it again. As of two weeks ago, he dislikes it again. Reminds me of the billboards around Times Square — on, off, on, off. Too much.
Ignoring the razzle dazzle
I like to sleep at night knowing I'm invested in stable, growing companies along the lines of Coventry Healthcare (NYSE: CVH) and Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI), two sturdy businesses that shouldn't leave shareholders awake at night with the hype of buy, sell, Buy!, Sell!
Plain and simple, finding good companies and holding through all the daily and monthly gyrations is the secret to building wealth. Coventry Healthcare and Darden have rewarded investors with 25% and 22% annual returns over the past 10 years, respectively. And these market-beating returns were made despite many downturns along the way.
Of course, I'm not promoting that you buy stock in a company, then just forget about it altogether. After all, we don't want to end up owning the next Enron. "Buy and hold" doesn't mean "buy and forget"; it just means avoiding the temptation to overanalyze our stocks or react to the daily hype. Not only will this more relaxed approach let us take advantage of the growth of our companies, it will also lead to lower frictional costs — commissions and taxes — that cut into our returns. It might even help our blood pressure.
Relaxed investing
Fool co-founders David and Tom Gardner take a relaxed path to investing, and advise Motley Fool Stock Advisor members to do so as well. When they recommend companies in Stock Advisor, they do so with a holding period of at least three to five years. While the brothers stay aware of their company's news as it happens, they don't jump at every event. They keep their eyes on the long-term prize.
For instance, Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) has been recommended three times — twice in the 2002 and once in the fall of 2004. Despite two drops of 40% or more since that last recommendation, the three picks have returned 662%, 374%, and 89%, respectively. By being relaxed and focusing on the long-term prospects of the company, the Gardners were not spooked by the large drop and have watched the price recover since then.
Relaxed, Hawaiian-style investing like that has let the brothers beat the S&P 500 index by more than 36 points since the newsletter's inception. You can try Stock Advisor for 30 days — for free. You may never want to move back to the frenetic mainland.
Fool contributor Jim Mueller enjoyed his two weeks of relaxation, but wasn't so sure he would survive his experiment. He doesn't own shares of any company mentioned. Coventry Healthcare is a Stock Advisor recommendation. Akamai Technologies is a Rule Breakers selection. Take a relaxing moment to read the Fool's disclosure policy.
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