According to the Wall Street Journal, there have been 32 recessions since 1854 and, on average, they've lasted seventeen months. Here's where it gets good, though. Again, sourcing a recent Wall Street Journal piece, there has been a decline in the length of recessions over the course of time, now averaging only ten months. But we've already surpassed the ten month mark if we're to believe the Fed's recent declaration. There are more factors this go-'round, however. We're facing the added burden of those declining housing markets. Of course, all experts are trying to prepare Americans for a vicious and continued downward spiral and in fact are issuing declarations of "dire times" for the very near future. Sounds ominous, yes? For a moment, let's consider the "worst case scenario." In fact, let's take it a step further. The following is a story that has actually come to pass for many Americans.
After an unexpected layoff due to a small company closing its doors, a man decides he's been handed a gift. Suddenly, he no longer has to work in this small company in order to further his financial career; it was a job he despised and he is grateful for the time that's just opened up that will allow him to find his definition of a dream job vacancy.What he hadn't counted on, however, is the absence of available positions. After countless resumes being mailed out, an un-ringing telephone failing to invite him in for interviews, and a rapid dwindling of his savings, he realizes he's in trouble. Six weeks later, he's still unemployed and hasn't made his car payment in three months. Another two weeks, he's now not only unemployed, but is no longer the proud owner of any motorized vehicle. Those pesky repo guys decided to target him at the bank's request. It's just as well, it's not as though the phone's ringing anyway, right? That's probably a good thing, because the next week, the telephone company discontinues his service. No phone, no transportation, and no job. If you're like me, your first question is “surely there had to have been some kind of job vacancy that would have provided him the chance to earn a living during this downtime, right?” Apparently, you and I weren't up against unheard of numbers of applicants for a single part-time job, fuel prices that had not yet begun their downward trends, and companies stuck in neutral as they waited for either confirmation of the recession or proof that the economy was on its way back up before resuming their hiring patterns.
The fact is that foreclosures, automobile repossessions, and job losses are becoming part of many Americans' fears. These are fears that we always believed would never be of any consequence to us. And for those of us who are still managing to at least maintain, take a look around and you will realize that if things don't begin to shift in some positive way, one of two things will happen to us. We'll either become the minority of the working folks, or we'll find ourselves in the same boat as many of our not as fortunate peers. Either way, it's not going to be fun.
Even worse is the fact that there doesn't seem to be a light at the end of the tunnel. Of course, nothing lasts forever, and things will eventually get better, but it's the meantime that's going to take us for a ride. For now, the automakers appear to be receiving the most attention in the media. That's not to say, of course, that there are no heads bumping together at the same time within the halls of the Senate, but it's going to be nearly impossible to make solid decisions on possible solutions until the crisis with the automakers is dealt with and finally put behind us.
For what it's worth, our case study above eventually found a position, courtesy of one of the employment agencies he eventually signed on with, as a consultant with a chain of mortgage companies and is working from home the vast majority of the time, which certainly helps since he won't be in a position to reclaim his automobile until after the holidays. He has also made great strides in rebuilding his life in terms of what he's lost monetarily. His marriage, unfortunately, didn't survive. Marriages are sometimes part of the casualties in a deep recession. This story's subject is just one of many who are currently experiencing a situation which, unfortunately, many others may find themselves facing over the course of the next few months (or years, depending on which analyst you're conversing with). If nothing else, this serves as a solid reminder of how important it is to plan for the future, especially a future that's impacted by events we as individuals have little control over.
